Comment

Hunt pulls rabbit out of the hat in belated bid to cast a new spell on voters

Chancellor and PM perform an impressive feat of prestidigitation in taking the fight to Labour – at last

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All credit to the Chancellor. Despite all the pre-briefing and pitch-rolling, there was a rabbit in the Autumn Statement.

Granted, it wasn’t one of those Guinness-World-Record-breaking Flemish giants that are as big as their owner. But out of the Treasury hat finally came a fluffy bunny in the shape of a long-awaited tax cut.

Not only would National Insurance be slashed by 2pc, but the new 10pc rate would also be brought forward to January in an unbelievable feat of electioneering. Hey presto! (Could a May election now be on the cards?).

Having been accused by Suella Braverman of “magical thinking” and relentlessly criticised for not being Conservative enough, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt were clearly determined to cast a new spell on the electorate.

Sure, there was all the usual budgetary smoke and mirrors. By cutting National Insurance for workers both employed and self-employed, the Chancellor is only giving back a little bit of what he’s taking by continuing to freeze the tax rate bands, with the tax take still expected to hit a new post-war high of nearly 38pc by 2029, according the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

And it remains to be seen whether the “biggest business tax cut since the 1980s” by making full expensing permanent will do enough to counter the 6pc rise in corporation tax.

The sleight of hand performed by the typically gloomy OBR in downgrading this country’s growth forecast is hardly helpful either, conjuring up the usual spirit of pessimism about our prospects.

Politically, however, this mini-budget was an impressive feat of prestidigitation in taking the fight to Labour, at last.

One of the main faults found in the cautious approach of “Spreadsheet Sunak” and “Honest Hunt” has been their naive assumption that competence alone will win the next general election.

Until now, they have appeared under the wide-eyed illusion that all they need to do to beat the opposition is convince voters they are the only ones capable of taking the tough decisions rather than the easy ones.

They hoped to narrow the formidable polling gap by cancelling the northern leg of HS2 and delaying the ban of sales of new petrol and diesel cars until 2035.

But it hasn’t shifted the dial because Sir Keir Starmer has steadfastly refused to take the bait, preferring soundbites over substance when it comes to the question of what Labour would do differently.

His Napoleonic policy of not interrupting the enemy when he is making a mistake, combined with the Government’s seeming inability to hammer home any of its key policies, beyond the unworkable Rwanda plan, has resulted in both parties being barely distinguishable from each other in the public consciousness. 

While it hardly benefits the Tories to appear too Left-wing in the eyes of their increasingly apathetic membership, Labour has been able to bask in the blue post-Corbyn glow of finally appearing sensible enough to actually run the country.

This Autumn Statement does set several traps for the opposition, though. In calling for debt to be reduced, taxes to be cut and work to be rewarded, Mr Hunt has presented Labour with something quite difficult to disagree with. 

But having repeatedly banged on about ending “13 years of Tory rule”,  the opposition has little choice but to go on the offensive, since anything less runs the risk of accusations of Labour being “more of the same”.

By committing to freezing departmental spending in cash terms over the next five years, Hunt has also handed Rachel Reeves a hospital pass should Labour come to power in 2024. Labour can hardly claim to be the party of fiscal discipline if the first thing it does in office is seek to break the rules designed to keep post-pandemic Britain on an even economic keel. 

Any future Chancellor wanting to avoid “austerity” cuts would therefore face a Hobson’s choice between reversing any tax breaks or borrowing more – a prospect so politically unpalatable in the current climate that it has already prompted Ms Reeves to water down her £28 billion-a-year Green Prosperity Plan

If she doesn’t oppose Mr Hunt’s proposals now, she is forced to stick with them in office. If she does, she risks squandering her hard-earned reputation for economic competence.

The Government’s welfare clampdown is also clever politics. It is going to be difficult for Labour to accuse the Conservatives of failing to help the poorest when they have increased Universal Credit by an above inflation 6.7pc (as well as putting up the national living wage by 9.8pc to £11.44 an hour). 

Similarly, Labour is going to struggle to flex its “party of the worker” muscles if it opposes moves to get the jobless into gainful employment, not least when there are a million vacancies waiting to be filled and the welfare bill is already astronomical. 

The notion of offering treatment rather than time off to those on long-term sickness will hold great appeal to the Red Wall voters who will prove pivotal when the country goes to the polls – as will Mr Hunt’s Reformesque call for us to “nurture home-grown talent” rather than “hankering” for more immigration and a return to free movement.

The Chancellor and the Prime Minister have waved a magic wand in beginning to more boldly set out what they would do differently to Labour. 

But the beleaguered electorate is right to expect them to have more impressive tricks up their sleeve next spring, when the Budget will undoubtedly prove to be a make or break final act.